Four Thirds User talks to Olympus Imaging president Masaharu Okubo

[Four Thirds User editorial team]

Four Thirds User had the opportunity to speak to Masaharu Okubo, president of the Olympus camera division, at the recent Berlin press launch event for the Olympus Pen E-P1.

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[John Perriment]

He was a bit coy about anticipated growth of the MFT market. I can't believe Oly would have committed substantial resources to developing this format if they didn't believe it would gain a bigger market share than the E-System. After all, the DSLR market is only 10% of the total digital camera market and Oly's share is quite modest compared to Nikon and Canon so they must be anticipating bigger sales from MFT to make it worthwhile.

[Bob Ross]

Originally Posted by John Perriment

He was a bit coy about anticipated growth of the MFT market. I can't believe Oly would have committed substantial resources to developing this format if they didn't believe it would gain a bigger market share than the E-System. After all, the DSLR market is only 10% of the total digital camera market and Oly's share is quite modest compared to Nikon and Canon so they must be anticipating bigger sales from MFT to make it worthwhile.

This is the first time that I have heard that 20% of the non-DSLR ownwers or 20% of about 92 million are the potential upwardly mobile digicam owners. That would be 18.4 million potential customers to chase while waving the E-P1 high and yelling see what we got!
The distraction that Ian mentioned could be defined as the number of DLSR system owners who are so tired of the bulk and weight, that they long for what the mFT concept offers, small and light. And they will drift into the distraction. It happens with the Leica M8/8.2, on a regular and current basis, folks who sell off the nicest big rigs and buy into an expensive but smaller system and are happy as clams in poverty...
Bob

[Ian]

Originally Posted by Bob Ross

This is the first time that I have heard that 20% of the non-DSLR ownwers or 20% of about 92 million are the potential upwardly mobile digicam owners. That would be 18.4 million potential customers to chase while waving the E-P1 high and yelling see what we got!
The distraction that Ian mentioned could be defined as the number of DLSR system owners who are so tired of the bulk and weight, that they long for what the mFT concept offers, small and light. And they will drift into the distraction. It happens with the Leica M8/8.2, on a regular and current basis, folks who sell off the nicest big rigs and buy into an expensive but smaller system and are happy as clams in poverty...
Bob

Panasonic and Olympus did some market research that suggested that up to 20% of compact digital camera owners aspired to the image quality and general performance of a DSLR (AF, shooting speed, interchangeable lenses, etc.) but were not persuaded by the DSLRs available to them, mainly because of bulk and weight, and complex operation compared to a compact.

100 million digital cameras (excluding phone cameras) are sold worldwide per year at the moment, with just just under 10% being DSLRs. The hope is that the market for compact interchangeable lens system cameras, like Micro Four Thirds, will eventually serve a good chunk of that 20% who want to go beyond a compact but not as far as a DSLR.

As this is completely new territory, it's very difficult to predict an accurate figure for the future success of this market category.

I personally think it will probably represenat a similar share as DSLRs today - around 10% of overall sales. I also think DSLR sales may flatten. So compact/bridge 80%, Micro Four Thirds and similar 10%, DSLRs 10%, say in 2-3 years time.

Ian

[John Perriment]

Originally Posted by Ian

I personally think it will probably represenat a similar share as DSLRs today - around 10% of overall sales. I also think DSLR sales may flatten. So compact/bridge 80%, Micro Four Thirds and similar 10%, DSLRs 10%, say in 2-3 years time.

Ian

If that turns out to be true it is still a huge market in which to compete. By getting ahead, and hopefully staying ahead, of the competition Olympus and Panasonic could conceivably dominate that market in much the same way that Nikon and Canon currently dominate the DSLR market. That would pay enormous dividends to the fortunes of both companies, particularly Olympus, and could ultimately help them gain a bigger slice of DSLR sales!

To borrow a slogan ..... The future is bright, the future is Orange (or yellow or blue or whatever colour Olympus decides upon for the next MFT camera body)!

[Ian]

Originally Posted by John Perriment

If that turns out to be true it is still a huge market in which to compete. By getting ahead, and hopefully staying ahead, of the competition Olympus and Panasonic could conceivably dominate that market in much the same way that Nikon and Canon currently dominate the DSLR market. That would pay enormous dividends to the fortunes of both companies, particularly Olympus, and could ultimately help them gain a bigger slice of DSLR sales!

To borrow a slogan ..... The future is bright, the future is Orange (or yellow or blue or whatever colour Olympus decides upon for the next MFT camera body)!

Besides Olympus and Panasonic, Only Samsung has come out and publicly committed to a non-DSLR interchangeable lens system, but theirs won't be mFT compatible, sadly. See:

http://dpnow.com/5771.html

The PMA mock-ups in the article look like mini DSLRs, but the latest word is that Samsung is following a route more similar in style to the E-P1.

Ian

[Idle_Bull]

I can't see the samsung competing on size, they might get the body somewhere near, but the lenses have to be bigger.

I'd be surprised if they make lenses any smaller than standard 4/3rds size!

micro 4/3rds has got to be the standard for this type of camera, it has the best compromise between size and picture quality.

[Ian]

You can make smaller lenses by compromising on the optics. The APS-C sensor Sigma DP1 and DP2 have very small lenses, though these are considered to be quite good, optically.

Ian

[John Perriment]

Originally Posted by Idle_Bull

I can't see the samsung competing on size, they might get the body somewhere near, but the lenses have to be bigger.

I'd be surprised if they make lenses any smaller than standard 4/3rds size!

micro 4/3rds has got to be the standard for this type of camera, it has the best compromise between size and picture quality.

Yes, and that's where our head start over the competition comes in. If they swallow their pride and adopt the MFT standard Nikon, Canon and Sony could catch up fast but if Oly and Panny use their head start shrewdly they could already be established as the market leaders by the time that happens. I just don't see Samsung or Sigma having a significant impact with this type of camera. Ricoh, however, make some really innovative, quality compacts and I could see them becoming a major player if they wished to enter this fast emerging market.

[Ian]

Originally Posted by John Perriment

Yes, and that's where our head start over the competition comes in. If they swallow their pride and adopt the MFT standard Nikon, Canon and Sony could catch up fast but if Oly and Panny use their head start shrewdly they could already be established as the market leaders by the time that happens. I just don't see Samsung or Sigma having a significant impact with this type of camera. Ricoh, however, make some really innovative, quality compacts and I could see them becoming a major player if they wished to enter this fast emerging market.

Unfortunately, Ricoh is not a major camera manufacturer. Compared to their office equipment business, their camera division is tiny. Ricoh doesn't even sell (officially) in the US.

Ian